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Land Line Decline

There’s a good article in Slate giving numbers on Fixed-Mobile Substitution in the US, and suggesting that a recent acceleration is due to the ailing economy:

…this year, the rate of decline of land lines has accelerated sharply. AT&T, which provides wired service in 22 states, just reported its second-quarter results. The wireless sector (72.9 million subscribers) continued to grow, adding 1.3 million net subscribers in the quarter. But revenues in the land-line voice services were down 7.8 percent from the first quarter of 2007. The number of retail consumer lines fell from 37.12 million in 2006 to 35.05 million in 2007, off 5.6 percent. In the first quarter of 2008, the company lost another 870,000 consumer land-line subscribers, or another 2.5 percent.

Verizon is suffering similar land-line declines. By the 2008 first quarter, its wireless unit had added 1.5 million customers since the 2007 first quarter. But the number of residential lines fell from 27.06 million to 24.11 million, a 10.9 percent decrease.

Qwest has seen its number of primary and additional consumer lines fall from 8.63 million in March 2006 to 7.17 million in March 2008, a decline of 17 percent.

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Jott for iPhone and other ASR products

In a previous posting I wished for an iPhone voice memo recorder, and I was disappointed to find that the 2.0 software load still lacked one. I now conclude that this was an intentional omission, yielding the opportunity to the new iPhone third party software community.

Last week I downloaded Jott, a free application, from the iTunes store. It is a serviceable voice recorder, so my wish is fulfilled.

But the beauty of the third party software community concept is that motivated, talented people in hungry startups will go beyond what’s justifiable in a large company like Apple, and this is what Jott has done. It doesn’t just record voice memos, it transcribes them into written text.

It works very well. It uses people to do the transcriptions. I am not sure if the utterances are preprocessed with Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and transmitted to humans for verification and correction, or if it is entirely done by people in a call center somewhere. When I mumble the text comes back as “Unclear,” but I can still play back what I said and recognize it for myself.

There are a few other transcription-type applications out there. Spinvox and PhoneTag transcribe voicemail into SMS and email. A great idea. Nuance, the world leader in voice recognition technology, announced a similar service in April.

In contrast to the foregoing, Yap is 100% automated, so to avoid mistakes it has the user verify its efforts. You speak the text you want to send as an SMS (or that you want to search the web for) and Yap renders it as text on your phone’s screen. You correct it and send it off. Yap doesn’t appear to be deployed yet.

Similar to Yap, but already deployed in the real world is Vlingo. I went to the Vlingo website to download a trial, but didn’t when I discovered I would have to buy a Blackberry to try it on. Vlingo was recently adopted by Yahoo! to power its onSearch mobile product. Nuance is suing Vlingo for patent infringement. Nuance has announced an application like this for the iPhone, but a search for “Nuance” in the iTunes store doesn’t yield any results for it yet.

Another ASR granddaddy is Tellme (now owned by Microsoft), which powers the Sprint Live Search service. Tellme also lets developers do free hosted low-volume implementations of their concepts in VoiceXML.

Getting back to my iPhone wish list, I am still baffled as to why it doesn’t do cut and paste. The argument that it would require an awkward user interface was exploded a year ago.

Update July 25th: I neglected to mention some other voicemail transcription services. Here is a comparative review of GotVoice, SpinVox, YouMail, and PhoneTag.

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Femtocell versus Wi-Fi

Rethink Research has published an interesting article relating the new Wi-Fi voice certification to the outlook for femtocells.

The idea of the article is that voice over Wi-Fi for cell phones is competing with femtocells, and that femtocells may win out. The article distinguishes between business voice and consumer voice, saying that service providers see femtocells as “an important stalking horse for greater control of corporate customers. ” This gives a hint of why femtocells may be unattractive to businesses: many of them would rather not yield this control.

Consumer voice service is controlled by service providers. They have three options in this space: do nothing, deploy femtocells or deploy Wi-Fi. Do nothing is the obvious best choice, since neither of the other options carries a revenue upside. But poor coverage in a home discourages usage and risks cancellations of subscriptions. So in areas of poor coverage something like femtocells or UMA (voice over Wi-Fi) is attractive to service providers. For both technologies the service provider subsidizes the wireless router, but femtocells will remain more expensive than Wi-Fi routers because of their lower sales volumes, so Wi-Fi is more attractive on this count. But UMA requires phones with Wi-Fi, while femtocells will work with any phone in the service provider’s line-up, including legacy ones. So the customers’ experience of femtocells is better – they can choose or keep the phone they want and still get improved coverage at home. This benefit of femtocells clearly outweighs the marginal price advantage of Wi-Fi routers. Femtocells may help subscriber retention in another way: a Wi-Fi router is not tied to any particular cellular service provider, while a femtocell only works with the carrier that supplied it.

The situation in businesses is different. They generally prefer to control their own voice systems, which is why they have PBXs. But a substantial number of business calls are now made on cell phones, even on company premises. These calls don’t go through the PBX, so they are not least-cost-routed and they are not logged or managed by the IT department. Femtocells don’t fix these problems, but Voice over Wi-Fi does. Not service provider Voice over Wi-Fi, like UMA, but SIP-based Voice over Wi-Fi from companies like DiVitas and Agito. What about phone choice though? Won’t corporate customers be stuck with a limited choice of handsets? The answer is yes, only a limited number of phones have Wi-Fi: less than 10% of those sold in 2008. But in the category of enterprise smart phones, like the Nokia Eseries and Blackberries, the attach rate of Wi-Fi will soon be close to 100%.

So femtocells are a good way for service providers to remedy churn caused by poor residential coverage for consumers, but Wi-Fi may be the better option for businesses that want to regain control over their voice traffic.

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More on Ozmo

A while back I wrote about Ozmo, a company that plans to replace Bluetooth with Wi-Fi in certain applications.

Ozmo’s pitch is that their special version of Wi-Fi is faster, less prone to interference, cheaper and more power efficient than Bluetooth. Though slow for Wi-Fi, Ozmo’s data rate of 9 Mbps is way better than the 3 Mbps of Bluetooth 2.1 plus EDR. Concerning interference, Bluetooth transmissions are in the same 2.4 GHz frequency range as Wi-Fi, so careful engineering is always needed for coexistence; but coexistence is not an issue for Ozmo, because it is a flavor of Wi-Fi. The lower-cost part of the story is that while an Ozmo chip for a peripheral is roughly the same price as a Bluetooth chip, it saves the need for a Bluetooth chip in the host device. So if Ozmo’s claims of double the battery life of Bluetooth turn out to be valid when tested, the pitch holds water.

Bluetooth is unshakably incumbent in the billion-unit-per-year mobile phone market; most phones are now shipping with Bluetooth. But in laptops the Bluetooth attach rate is still well under 50%, while the Wi-Fi attach rate is close to 100%. So it makes sense that Ozmo is focusing initially on the computer market. Ozmo enables a laptop to use wireless peripherals like mice, keyboards, game controllers and headsets with a software modification to the Wi-Fi rather than having to include a USB wireless receiver in the package.

Ozmo is also focusing on the Consumer Electronics market, where Wi-Fi is gaining traction, and where the ability to support wireless remotes and similar peripherals can be added ‘free of charge’ to a device that already has Wi-Fi.

Since this is a compelling proposition, OEMs in these markets are likely to fall into line relatively easily, and indeed Ozmo has already secured the support of the biggest fish in the PC pond, Intel.

It may be a harder sell to the peripheral manufacturers. For them it’s not just a software upgrade. It is a new product line, one that depends on a single source for a key component and that sells into a currently non-existent base of host devices.

On the other hand, the peripheral device manufacturers may not be oposed to a new product line – they already have a plethora of products, using a variety of connectivity technologies including proprietary ones. Adding another one may not be too arduous, especially if it removes the need for a USB part. Ozmo could overcome the non-existent base issue by supplying, or convincing Intel and the other PC Wi-Fi chip vendors to supply, upgraded drivers for legacy Wi-Fi devices.

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Wi-Fi certification for voice devices

In news that is huge for VoWi-Fi, the Wi-Fi Alliance announced on June 30th a new certification program, “Voice-Personal.” Eight devices have already been certified under this program, including enterprise access points from Cisco and Meru, a residential access point from Broadcom, and client adapters from Intel and Redpine Signals.

Why is this huge news? Well, as the press release points out, by 2011 annual shipments of cell phones with Wi-Fi will be running at roughly 300 million units. The Wi-Fi in these phones will be used for Internet browsing, for syncing photos and music with PCs, and for cheap or free voice calls.

The certification requirements for Voice-Personal are not aggressive: only four simultaneous voice calls in the presence of data traffic, with a latency of less than 50 milliseconds and a maximum jitter of less than 50 milliseconds. These numbers will produce an acceptable call under most conditions, but a network round-trip delay of 300 ms is generally considered to approach the limit of acceptability, and with a Wi-Fi hop at each end running at the limit of these specifications there would be no room in the latency budget for any additional delays in the voice path. The packet loss requirement, 1% with no burst losses, is a very good number considering that modern voice codecs from companies like GIPS can yield excellent sound quality in the presence of much higher packet loss. This number is hard to achieve in the real world, as phones encounter microwave ovens, move through spots of poor coverage and transition between access points.

Since this certification is termed “Voice-Personal,” four active calls per access point is acceptable; a residence is unlikely to need more than that. Three of the four access points submitted for this certification are enterprise access points. They should be able to handle many more calls, and probably can. The Wi-Fi Alliance is planning a “Voice-Enterprise” certification for 2009.

There are several things that are good about this certification. First, the WFA has seen fit to highlight voice as a primary use for Wi-Fi, and has set a performance baseline. Second, this certification requires some other certifications as well, like WMM power save and WMM QoS. So far in 2008, of 99 residential access points certified only 6 support WMM power save, and of 52 enterprise access points only 13 support WMM power save. One of the biggest criticisms of Wi-Fi in handsets is that it draws too much power. WMM power save yields radical improvements in battery life – better than doubling talk time and increasing standby time by over 30%, according to numbers in the WFA promotional materials.

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Making lemons into lemonade

Phybridge is a Canadian startup (founded May 2007) aiming to solve some of the problems of VoIP implementation. Its premise is that in many cases, an organization seeking to move from a traditional TDM phone network to a VoIP network does not have an Ethernet LAN capable of supporting VoIP. This inadequacy may result from insufficient capacity, QoS or reliability.

The conventional solution in these cases is to upgrade the Ethernet network while junking the old phone wiring.

Phybridge proposes to leave the Ethernet network alone, and to reuse the old phone wiring to implement a parallel data network, using Ethernet over a flavor of DSL. This is similar to HomePNA, but aimed at business use rather than consumer, and done point-to-point rather than into a shared medium.

The solution consists of two parts: a central box called “Uniphyer” has 24 ports connected to the legacy phone wiring. At the other end of each cable run is a “phy adapter” the size of a pack of cigarettes that you plug into the legacy phone jack, and into which you plug your Ethernet VoIP phone.

The Uniphyer provides power over the same copper pair as the data, so you can plug power-over-Ethernet phones into the client adapters.

The data rate is 3 megabits per second upstream, 30 down. This is slow for a data network, but certainly adequate for VoIP, so an organization that is replacing a conventional PBX phone system with a VoIP one may find Phybridge a cost effective solution if their existing data network isn’t up to VoIP, and the required improvements are extensive.

The Uniphyer is scheduled to launch at the end of September.

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Is 802.11n too power-hungry for handsets?

Most 802.11n access points draw more power than Power over Ethernet (PoE) can supply, while 802.11a/b/g access points work comfortably with PoE. So 802.11n must be more power consumptive than 11g, right?

The answer is yes, but when you delve into the reasons why you may discover that an 802.11n handset can still have comparable, or better battery life than an 802.11g one.

The big power drain for 802.11n is MIMO, for two reasons. First, MIMO demands a separate radio transmitter for each of its channels. In the Farpoint white paper linked above, testing was done with six transmitters – 3 at 2.4 GHz, 3 at 5GHz. The 11n specification allows up to 4 MIMO channels, and Wi-Fi certification requires at least two. Each of these transmitters burns as much power as the single (or dual in the case of an a/g AP) transmitter in an 11a or 11g access point. A second increase in power demand by 11n comes from the increased processing load not just because of the increased number of channels, and not just because of the increased data throughput, but also because each individual MIMO stream places a heavier processing load than a single 11a or 11g stream.

But the Wi-Fi Alliance (WFA) has waived the MIMO requirements for handsets, allowing 802.11n certification for single-radio devices. So none of these increases in power dissipation needs to apply to handsets.

Single-channel 802.11n still requires more processing than single channel 802.11g, because of advanced features like STBC and LDPC, but STBC and LDPC are amenable to hardware implementation (which reduces their power demand), and these and other advanced features of 802.11n improve “rate at range,” meaning that the transmitter is active for shorter times, and can transmit at lower power.

The net is that Redpine Signals, a pioneer of 11n for handsets, claims that a handset using the Redpine 11n chip actually has better battery life than it would with a competitor’s 11g chip.

Wi-Fi state of the art is a rapidly moving target, and over the past 12 months there have been startling improvements in power efficiency. I have written here about the new Atheros chip, for example. So if the latest 11g handset chips are more power efficient than 11n competitors, it is more a function of their recency than their adherence to 11g.

The benefit of 5 GHz operation is compelling for Voice over Wi-Fi, and it will be hard for handset vendors to promote the decade-old 802.11a over 802.11n. 802.11n is already the Wi-Fi flavor of choice for access points and PC clients, and it soon will be for handsets, too. How soon? It’s hard to say. So far the only chip vendors to announce 11n for handsets are TI, Redpine Signals and Conexant, and Conexant exited the handset Wi-Fi business just two months after it announced this chip. No phone is yet shipping with 802.11n although TI said it was sampling its WiLink 6.0 with 11n in February 2007. The Wi-Fi alliance has not yet published its Handheld profile for 802.11n certification. On the other hand, ABI research in September 2006 predicted that the majority of the 300 million Wi-Fi enabled handsets to ship in 2011 will support 802.11n.

If 802.11n handset shipments fall short of this prediction, it won’t be because of battery life considerations.

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Wi-Fi Bluetooth collision

I already wrote about how Bluetooth is specifying Wi-Fi for its high bandwidth transport in a future version. Now there’s another interesting Bluetooth/Wi-Fi juxtaposition.

You may remember that last year Bluetooth subsumed WiBree as an ultra low power consumption variant. Now something analogous is happening in Wi-Fi, where a startup called Ozmo has come up with an ultra low power variation of Wi-Fi, which it is pitching as a substitute for Bluetooth.

Ozmo is not the first to propose this. Nanoradio claims that its implementation of Wi-Fi consumes way less power than Bluetooth, and they have a reference design for a Wi-Fi headset to demo the concept. Atheros has also recently announced a low-power Wi-Fi chip – so low that they claim “near zero” stand-by power consumption.

So Ozmo may not be so radical in its low-power claims, but it also claims low-cost. The Ozmo chip is priced the same as Bluetooth chips, which Ozmo estimates are between 1/4 and 1/3 the cost of Wi-Fi chips.

The Atheros and Nanoradio chips are full implementations of Wi-Fi; Ozmo’s is, according to this EETimes article, a “stripped down” version. This may mean that it is a non-standard version, in which case it would need a new certification program from the Wi-Fi Alliance – not a major obstacle, I presume, in view of Intel’s strong support for Ozmo.

So why would anybody want a version of Wi-Fi to substitute for Bluetooth, when we already have Bluetooth? Well, while most phones come with Bluetooth these days, in the PC world Wi-Fi is far more common than Bluetooth. So for peripherals designed exclusively for PCs, like mice and keyboards, Wi-Fi makes more sense than Bluetooth simply on the grounds of out-of-the-box compatibility. Add the technical benefits, like coexistence (Bluetooth and Wi-Fi tend to step on each others’ toes) and superior performance (Ozmo claims double the battery life in similar applications to Bluetooth), and it seems like a no-brainer.

The factors that could cause it to fail are ease of use and price. The setup of the peripherals with the PC must be completely automatic, and the operation of the devices must be flawless. Peripheral manufacturers must produce Wi-Fi versions of all their wireless products, and price them the same as their Bluetooth versions. The Wi-Fi drivers on the PC side will have to be modified in order to permit the PC Wi-Fi to communicate simultaneously with access points and peripherals. This is being done anyway by Intel, in a project called “Cliffside.”

All these impediments are mitigated considerably by Intel’s involvement. Intel makes most of the Wi-Fi chips in PCs, and presumably these chips will support the Ozmo products. With this assurance, peripheral manufacturers will feel comfortable going ahead with Ozmo-powered products.

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Agito and Cisco Motion

Agito Networks was in the news recently as a part of Cisco’s Motion announcement. I have mentioned Agito a couple of times before in this blog. Like DiVitas it offers PBX-agnostic enterprise-based fixed-mobile convergence.

One of Agito’s unique technical claims is that it employs location based technology as one of the factors to determine the handover between Wi-Fi and Cellular (and vice versa).

The RoamAnywhere Mobility Router adds the element of location awareness to solve the challenging problem of routing between multiple networks.

From the Agito website

The Mobile Intelligent Roaming component of Cisco’s new Mobility Services Engine (MSE) also uses location as one of the factors (the other are signal strength and signal quality) to determine when to hand off between networks. This incorporation of location awareness into the MSE’s handover recommendation appears to weaken Agito’s claim to uniqueness in this respect, so why is Agito so enthusiastic about the MSE?

The MSE boils down an assortment of metrics related to handover decision-making to a simple binary message – link-up or link-down – which it sends to a third party eFMC controller like the Agito RoamAnywhere Mobility Router. The message is a recommendation, not a command, but since the MSE sends just this binary event, rather than any of the metrics that go into it, Cisco seems to be claiming responsibility for the decision about when to hand over.

Rather than simply obeying the link-up or link-down event by changing networks, the Agito mobility router takes these events as triggers to run its own handover-decision algorithm, using metrics gathered by the handset. This makes sense for several reasons. First, the Agito location determination mechanism is more precise for this particular application, since it knows when it is going through a doorway, whereas the Cisco location mechanism has a more general idea about the perimeter of the building. Second, the entire Agito handover-decision algorithm has to be maintained regardless of how good the MSE is at making the decision, because in many places there is no MSE (at home, in public areas, in buildings with non-Cisco networks and in buildings with Cisco networks lacking an MSE).

So Agito views the information from the MSE as a mere additional factor for its handover decision-making, rather than a substitute. On the other hand, Cisco’s marketing program around the MSE is a huge benefit to Agito.

Even though this part of the MSE will not be released until later this year, Agito’s Mobility Router works fine without it; the Cisco Motion announcement has led to a burst of interest in Agito from Cisco’s channel partners. According to Cisco, it has 65% share of enterprise Wi-Fi infrastructure, so Pej Roshan, Agito’s V.P. of marketing, anticipates that the relationship will “slingshot us to the next level of sales and customers.”

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802.11n update

There’s some FUD around 802.11n. A comment on this blog wonders how long it will be before it is ratified, and calls it a “pipe dream.”

So I was pleased to hear an aside from a Cisco executive in the webinar about the new Cisco Mobility vision. A participant asked Brett Galloway if delays in the ratification of 802.11n are holding back deployment. He responded:

We don’t see it. Technology adoption is a cycle. Late adopters are more conservative. Large numbers of 11n clients are shipping. The driver is Wi-Fi Alliance Draft N certification. There is comprehensive agreement around the ecosystem for interoperability testing using the WFA testbed. Cisco announced recently that it had shipped 50,000 11n access points.

The critical point here is that a final 802.11n specification is not needed for successful deployment. The main thing you want from a Wi-Fi device is that it is interoperable with all the others, and that’s what the Wi-Fi Alliance Draft N certification delivers – at least to the same extent that 11g devices are interoperable.

While 50,000 is a trivial number in the context of Wi-Fi access points, remember this is just enterprise-grade APs, and doesn’t include anything from Cisco’s Linksys division. When the litigation goes away and the final specification is published, all the access points out there are likely to be upgradable with a download. So go ahead and enjoy the benefits of 11n like so many other people are doing.